Who is Bobby Murphy? This is our 2nd favorite question to ask because Murphy seems to be the visionary behind our second best long-term investment.
The #1 investment, you ask? You can easily glean the answer from our Twitter account John Pitts “@EquityDiamonds.” Just read back-tweets thru Easter 2019. This #1 investment is up over 300% in the past month. SNAP our #2, is executing at an almost unbelievable pace with 3 major catalysts hitting in Q2 2019. Market-willing, i.e. no 1929-style drops, this might honestly mark your last chance to own SNAP shares somewhat cheaply as it’s entirely possible for shares to move quickly to $17–30 this summer on the Q2 announce (or pre-announce?). After a potential blockbuster Q2 report, SNAP could very well become a Wall Street darling and rip up thru the $20s $30s and even $40 in short timeframe — measured in months not years.
Here’s the list of 3 major catalysts which have all hit simultaneously in Q2 which could jack numbers when Snap Inc. reports in August:
- Snap GAMES, April 4
Not only are Snap Games very engaging, but they are also unique in that they are glued to your SnapChat social graph, which allows you to easily play the games with friends. This differs from Zynga/Facebook’s Farmville days in an important way: because Snap doesn’t blast the fact you’re playing games to all your contacts like Facebook embarrassingly did. While this might slow down the adoption of games a bit, Snapchat easily makes those trades in favor of its users right to privacy. “Snakes” is addictive; “Bitmoji Party” has gotten great reviews by users; the latest addition this week, “Tiny Royale”, capitalizes on a more Disney-fied version of the Fortnite gaming revolution. You might not be interested in games yourself, but Snap’s casual games like Snake along with involved games like Tiny Royale increase in a big way, and advertisers LOVE usage numbers and flock to platforms that have them growing like a weed.
2. Roll-out of Snap’s Android overhaul, April 8: https://www.businessinsider.com/snapchat-android-app-update-2019-4.
This long-awaited catalyst allows Snapchat to attack geographies of 2nd and 3rd world nations whose incomes don’t provide high-quality smartphone ownership such as Apple’s iOS iPhone Xs or Samsung Galaxy devices. Low-end phones have notoriously low memory and can’t handle highly complex apps like Snapchat which pack feature-rich functionality such as augmented reality and multiple platform accessibility from the same app (unlike say Facebook which has several separate apps — much to the dismay of its users who have to shift painstakingly from one to the other to achieve what Snap provides inside the walls of a single app). The overhaul will allow users of low-end Android phones to use Snapchat without latency or issues. It will also improve camera operations which has long been sought by Android users suffering embarrassment on social media from peers (see twitter image below). Snap should easily pick up a ton of new users for the rest of 2019 on this catalyst alone.
3. GENDER SWAP LENSES:
This catalyst has been a MONSTER. Snap has suddenly begun appearing in the #1 and #2 spot on iPhone’s top free apps lists in the past month (lookout Instagram). Gender Swap is hotter than the Kardashian women in social media. Most importantly for you, Gender Swap has brought back quite a few millennials who ditched the Snap platform for their more familiar roots on Instagram when Instagram copied Stories. Thus, both users and usage will benefit from the wide hit Gender Swap Lenes have brought the Snap platform. Gender Swap is rightly a hit, and not a fad, because you can imagine it’s going to be a PLATFORM and not just a feature in the future. What Bitmoji has done to create your own personal cartoon-version of you as a platform, Gender Swap (I’m including age-swap filters too) hints at a future where people can be whatever they want. Think about it folks, I don’t want to put weird images in your head but if you find you life-partner isn’t quite looking the way you’d hoped after maybe 30 years, you can simply age-back his face and body and voila you’re still married to the man you fell in love with as a young man. That is where Gender Swap is pointing in the future. Craze? Sure. But a craze with a long future appealing to users. Bobby Murphy’s vision indeed.
RECOMMENDATION: Snap is ideal as a 20–25% sized position in your portfolio at this point, so long as you are protected with a large cash holding in the event this long rally turns into a long recession. It’s firing on all cylinders, and I can make a case for $10 billion in revenues and approaching $1.00 in EPS in the next 4 years if the economy continues its growth (flip a coin on that!). If the economy falters, Snap’s ads are still trading at a massive discount to Youtube and Facebook ads which are bloated from simplistic but large advertisers clamoring for ad space without doing any ROI math bake-offs. Thus, while the ad market in general might taper off, Snap can still grow by stealing market share with higher ROIs and lower prices from it’s saturated-rivals charging premium ad prices per interaction.
I promised you all I’d write the details on Snapchat from my first post which only gave you the ticker symbol of my favorite stock long at that moment in time. Snap has been replaced as #1 in my long-term ideal holdings list (again, see my Twitter account John Pitts (@EquityDiamond) to get the free pick that can turn $4,000 into $1 million over the next 5–15 years), but frankly it’s the better short-term bet right now with Q2 looming and a potentially home-run quarter reported due to the catalysts listed above. Since I promised you more details but lack the time to go back in history and lay out the proper foundation for the SNAP investment, allow me to point you to my SeekingAlpha account where my initial case for Snap is fully written-out. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/346372-i-2-j-2-k-2-ijk-minus-1/5023582-snap-13-best-long-stock-market.
You can feel free to critique my August 2017 call at ~$13, but I still stand by it despite the trip to $4 late in 2018. Volatility is something I expect when attempting to maximize long term gains; it’s my goal to get a FANTASTIC price, not the BEST price possible which is almost impossible anyway. Buying a great company at a fantastic price is something I can govern. Getting it at best possible price is something I cannot.
NEXT 2 ARTICLES:
- I will add further color to what Snapchat is doing compared to its competitors, and I’ll outline some of their platforms.
- I promise to write-out the descriptive of the world’s best investment. This investment is probably the best investment call I’ll ever make, lifetime. It’s within a sector I’ve been following for decades but on Easter Sunday 2019 had an A-HA(!!) moment after listening to the wise words of the founder-inventor speak. Hints: I began getting interested in this sector in 1999 (and even prior) but made my first investments via Paypal back when Thiel and Musk were just relatively unknown employees, and also Neteller which I found at bargain basement price in 2004-2005 before the online poker sector took off but was later destroyed by the Bushed Family and their crooked campaign donors. Consider it “online payments” sector. I’ve found the mother-lode and can’t wait to find the time to tell you about it. If you’re really curious, again, all you have to do is shoot over to my Twitter account and you can’t miss it — I’m obsessed. Another hint: It’s the world’s newest tradable commodity — an epic commodity which will change the human paradigm established thousands of years ago.
Research to be done:
- The BEST thing about my “greatest investment call I’ll ever make” is the fact that it’s a platform which will lead me to be able to find all the next “FAANG” stocks of the next 20 years. They’re all private now, but they already exist and are fighting for primacy on this new platform/invention. It’s going to be an exciting 20 years whether the economy takes a massive digger and leads to civil war or powers upwards as if recessions aren’t possible. Either way, as one nutty guy says every weekday “There’s always a bull market somewhere”.
- Bobby Murphy. We all know Evan Spiegel; he’s great even tho highly criticized. But what about his “silent” partner? Why don’t we know more?
Long Term Price Target for SNAP: $400 per share
HandCash $shandle = $JohnPitts