2017–2021 Postmortem & New Opportunities $SNAP(chat)

John Pitts
8 min readJul 22, 2022

A post-mortem & what I think today at $10.xx

Disclaimer: Albeit with about 35 years of stock-picking experience, >20 of it professionally, I am not considered safe to tell anyone what stocks to buy, so this is just a marker in the sand for myself and my family and shouldn’t be used for anything other than entertainment purposes.

Post-mortem self analysis:

Posts on SeekingAlpha were stopped bc that app has always been run by mongreloids of sorts. My last post was February 2020 right before the pandemic went “Live” in the world, and was a “last stop at the train station” call on Snapchat. My timing was impeccable; my price was not (Read the “Uncertainty Principle of Investing” for how that works: https://sym.re/CqFMMYR [1]). Nonetheless, from “COVID March” began the short 18 month trek from about $8 to $80, a 1.5 year “10 bagger”. It’s the sort of performance one always dreams. Three years after my initial Fall 2017 buy call (at $13.xx), my pick was down nicely. But 18 months later, the pick from 2017 had achieved a 57% annualized return — the stock picks of legends.

But my call was worse than that, from about $13.50 (say) to about $60 average sell price. Unfortunately for SeekingAlpha readers, I didn’t post my sell recommendation publicly. But I sent an email to close associates of my sell recommendation on the very DAY of $SNAP’s high of 2021 at $83. Maybe my entry was poorly timed and at far higher than the ideal buy price (SNAP went below $5 in December 2018). I sold some around $40 (which had always been my realistic medium-term price target), some around $60, and my final batch at around $80, including a big chunk at the all time high on September 21, 2021.

Here’s the two emails I sent last year, in order:

$83.34 on this day, Sep 24, is the ATH — I’m getting better at timing selling.
post-mortem screen capture of open/hi/low/close — Yahoo Finance

This second one was sent to an institution. It was reminding them that Snapchat as an app had finally reached daily #1 on the Apple App Store after being #2 thru #10 for years while I owned it. Irony is no longer lost on me — it’s an indicator in the tool belt. I learned this lesson when I sold a very long term position in Apple in 2019…

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John Pitts

Recommends the BEST equities (“Diamonds”) WHEN they are (“in the Roughage”) at the lowest price to achieve the highest long term gains.